GUARDED OPTIMISM – AT 7:12 P.M. ET:  Republicans are expressing cautious satisfaction as new polls show some, we repeat, some progress toward possible control of the U.S. Senate.  Fox reports:

The race for the Senate continues to heat up as Republicans lead for two seats currently held by Democrats -- Nevada and Washington -- while another Republican has closed into striking distance for an open seat in Connecticut.

Republican Linda McMahon has taken a bite out of Democrat Richard Blumenthal's lead in Connecticut while her fellow GOPers Dino Rossi and Sharron Angle cling to slim leads over entrenched Democrats in Washington state and Nevada.

With just three weeks to go, control of the U.S. Senate may hang on a handful of ballots in these key states.

The latest surveys were conducted on Oct. 9 by Pulse Opinion Research for Fox News. Each survey included 1,000 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3 points.

In Connecticut, GOP wrestling lady Linda McMahon has pulled to within six points of state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, from ten a week ago.  Can Linda close the gap?  Connecticut will report early on election night, and a horse race there can really warm up the evening.

Sharron Angle, who has now raised a ton of cash, holds on to a two-point lead over Harry Reid in Nevada.  No one is calling this yet.

Dino Rossi has pulled ahead of Patty Murray, but only by a point, in Washington.  Again, too close to call.

Republican Rob Portman has a 17-point lead in Ohio, and that seat will remain in GOP hands.

Delaware is lost, period.  Christine O'Donnell, a lovely and affecting young woman, has been Palinized by the press and by some retrogrades in her own party, and is making no progress.  I'd like to have someone send in the name of a liberal woman who's been treated this way.  Please note that the press has a special knife out for attractive conservative women, like Sarah, Christine, and Michelle Bachmann.  Is this some kind of resentment, or what?

On balance, though, the GOP is holding its own or advancing, if slowly.  But we have three weeks to go, and there is nothing certain.  RealClearPolitics has the Senate tied at 48-48, with four toss ups.  I could give you a scenario where all four toss ups go Democratic, or Republican. 

Republicans will make gains in the Senate.  Control of the Senate will go down to the wire.

October 12, 2010